Question: User: EXAMPLE 3
Use a Conjecture to Make a Prediction
Based on the data in the table, how many residents would you expect to vote in the 7th town council election?
Town Council Elections
Voter Turnout
Year
Total
Residents
Voters
1
3,511
386
2
3,790
414
3
4,085
451
4
4,907
544
5
5,562
623
6
7,014
767
7
7,786
?
1. **State the problem:** We want to predict the number of voters in the 7th town council election based on the given data of total residents and voters for elections 1 through 6.
2. **Analyze the data:** We have the following pairs of total residents ($R$) and voters ($V$):
$$
\begin{aligned}
& (3511, 386), (3790, 414), (4085, 451), (4907, 544), (5562, 623), (7014, 767)
\end{aligned}
$$
3. **Find the ratio of voters to residents for each election:**
$$
\frac{386}{3511} \approx 0.110\quad
\frac{414}{3790} \approx 0.109\quad
\frac{451}{4085} \approx 0.110\quad
\frac{544}{4907} \approx 0.111\quad
\frac{623}{5562} \approx 0.112\quad
\frac{767}{7014} \approx 0.109
$$
4. **Calculate the average voter turnout ratio:**
$$
\text{Average ratio} = \frac{0.110 + 0.109 + 0.110 + 0.111 + 0.112 + 0.109}{6} = \frac{0.661}{6} \approx 0.1102
$$
5. **Use the average ratio to predict voters in the 7th election:**
Given total residents in 7th election $R_7 = 7786$, predicted voters $V_7$ is:
$$
V_7 = 0.1102 \times 7786 \approx 857.9
$$
6. **Round to the nearest whole number:**
$$
V_7 \approx 858
$$
**Final answer:** We expect approximately **858** voters in the 7th town council election.